The 2023 WNBA Playoffs presented by Google tip off on Wednesday night with last year’s finalists – Las Vegas and Connecticut hosting Game 1 of their first-round matchups with Chicago and Minnesota, respectively. The No. 3 seed Sun open the action against the No. 6 Lynx at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2, followed by the No. 1 seed Aces beginning their title defense against the No. 8 Sky at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

To get ready for each of the four first-round matchups, we’re going to break down the eight teams using a confidence ranking. This exercise is similar to a confidence pool, where you assign more points to the team you have the most confidence in winning and fewer points to the team you have the least confidence in winning.

Keep in mind, these rankings are based on first-round matchups only, rather than overall confidence in advancing through all of the rounds and eventually being crowned WNBA champions. Instead, we’ll post a new confidence pool at the beginning of each round.

Before we unveil the rankings, here is a look at the schedule for each first-round matchup.

First Round Matchups

(1) Las Vegas vs. (8) Chicago

• Game 1, Sky at Aces: Wednesday, Sept. 13, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 2, Sky at Aces: Sunday, Sept. 17, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
• Game 3, Aces at Sky: Wednesday, Sept. 20, Time TBD, ESPN (if necessary)
• Season Series: Aces won 3-0
• Matchup Stats: Aces vs. Sky | Sky vs. Aces

(2) New York vs. (7) Washington

• Game 1, Mystics at Liberty: Friday, Sept. 15, 7:30 ET, ESPN2
• Game 2, Mystics at Liberty: Tuesday, Sept. 19, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 3, Liberty at Mystics: Friday, Sept. 22, Time TBD, ESPN2 (if necessary)
• Season Series: Tied at 2-2
• Matchup Stats: Liberty vs. Mystics | Mystics vs. Liberty

(3) Connecticut vs. (6) Minnesota

• Game 1, Lynx at Sun: Wednesday, Sept. 13, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• Game 2, Lynx at Sun: Sunday, Sept. 17, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 3, Sun at Lynx: Wednesday, Sept. 20, Time TBD, ESPN (if necessary)
• Season Series: Sun won 3-1
• Matchup Stats: Sun vs. Lynx | Lynx vs. Sun

(4) Dallas vs. (5) Atlanta

• Game 1, Dream at Wings: Friday, Sept. 15, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• Game 2, Dream at Wings: Tuesday, Sept. 19, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 3, Wings at Dream: Friday, Sept. 22, Time TBD, ESPN2 (if necessary)
• Season Series: Wings won 3-0
• Matchup Stats: Wings vs. Dream | Dream vs. Wings

First Round Confidence Rankings

1. Las Vegas Aces (8 points)

The Aces get our highest first-round confidence pick as they begin their title defense against the No. 8 seed Sky – a team that the Aces nearly doubled up in wins this season, 34 to 18.

Las Vegas posted a wire-to-wire run at the top of the WNBA standings this season. They went 27-3 through their first 30 games and looked nearly invincible before hitting a slight rough patch in mid-August. Including a loss to New York in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game, the Aces went 4-4 over two weeks before closing out the season strong with four straight wins.

The Aces finished with the most regular season wins in WNBA history (34), along with the fifth-highest win percentage (.850), and at 19-1 had the third-best home win percentage (.950). They swept the three-game season series with the Sky, averaging 98 points per game and winning by an average of 10.7 points.

Three Aces averaged at least 20 points per game against the Sky this season – Kelsey Plum (22 ppg), A’ja Wilson (21 ppg) and Chelsea Gray (20 ppg on ridiculous 63% FG, 57% 3P, and 92% FT shooting splits. Those shooting percentages conjure flashbacks of Gray’s magnificent shooting display from last year’s championship run for the Aces (61% FG, 54% 3P, 83% FT).

2. New York Liberty (7 points)

While the Liberty finished at the top of the final three weeks of our Power Rankings, they dropped to No. 2 in the first-round confidence pool in large part due to their opponent – the Washington Mystics.

Washington was a top-four team in the league through the first five weeks of the season before being ravaged by injuries that derailed their trajectory and sent them down the standings, finishing in the No. 7 spot. However, the Liberty and Mystics split their season series 2-2, with three of their four games decided by single digits, including the regular-season finale when Brittney Sykes hit a game-winning buzzer-beater to snap New York’s eight-game win streak.

Despite the loss on Sunday, the Liberty have been the hottest team in the league over the back half of the season – they are 13-2 since Aug. 1. MVP candidate Breanna Stewart, who led the WNBA with four 40-point games this season, has led the Liberty all season long, but has struggled against the Mystics. In four games against Washington, Stewart has averaged just 15.8 points on 33% shooting from the field and 14% from 3-point range – her lowest marks against any opponent in all three categories.

Sabrina Ionescu averaged a team-high 21.3 points per game, averaging four 3-pointers made per game on 46% shooting, to go with 7.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. She’s been dealing with a calf injury over the past couple of weeks but posted over 30 minutes in each of New York’s final two regular season games.

3. Connecticut Sun (6 points)

Alyssa Thomas led the WNBA with a record six triple-doubles this season, with two of them coming against Connecticut’s first-round matchup, the Minnesota Lynx. In fact, Thomas averaged a triple-double in four games against the Lynx this season, posting averages of 17.3 points, 13 rebounds, and 10.3 assists as Connecticut won the season series 3-1.

DeWanna Bonner averaged a team-high 17.5 points per game against the Lynx, while Tiffany Hayes added 12.3 points on 54% shooting from the field and 39% from 3-point range. While Hayes shot it well from long distance, the Sun as a team shot just 30.6% from 3-point range against Minnesota – their lowest percentage against any opponent this season – including shooting 7-of-37 (18.9%)

In their final two meetings, the teams split.

Not only did the Sun begin this season without former MVP Jonquel Jones, Jasmine Thomas, and head coach Curt Miller from the core that reached the WNBA Finals twice in the last four years, but they also lost starting center Brionna Jones after just 13 games this season. But the Sun continued to stack up wins to earn the No. 3 seed as they continue to pursue the franchise’s first WNBA title.

4. Dallas Wings (5 points)

The Wings swept the season series over the Dream, 3-0, including a 17-point win in the regular season finale this past Sunday in Atlanta. Only the first meeting of the season back in May was decided by single digits as Dallas won the three games by an average of 12 points.

The Dream had no answers to slow down Arike Ogunbowale, who averaged 26.7 points against Atlanta, her second-highest scoring average against any opponent this season. In addition to Ogunbowale, Natasha Howard added 19.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, while Satou Sabally added 14.3 points and a team-high 4.0 assists.

Dallas ended the regular season ranked third in points (87.9 per game) and first in rebounds (38.7 per game), including 11.8 offensive boards leading to 14.8 second-chance points. The Wings’ offense was even better over the final 10 games of the season, ranking first in points per game (92.3) as they went 6-4 down the stretch.

5. Washington Mystics (4 points)

As mentioned earlier, the Mystics are a better team than their 19-21 record and No. 7 seed would indicate. A promising 8-4 start was derailed by injuries as the rising number of missed games coincided with a rising number of losses. Take a look at this list: Kristi Toliver (29 games missed, out for the season with torn ACL), Shakira Austin (21 games missed, day-to-day after re-injuring her hip), Elena Delle Donne (17 games missed) and Ariel Atkins (13 games missed, playing with a broken nose).

The Mystics were without Toliver and Austin when they faced the Liberty in the regular season finale for both teams on Sunday, with the Mystics prevailing on a Brittney Sykes game-winning buzzer beater off a perfectly executed inbounds play for the athletic guard to catch-and-shoot in mid-air to beat the 0.5 seconds they had to get a shot off.

Sunday’s game was the third straight matchup between these teams decided by single digits, including two one-possession games. Not only are the Mystics one of just six teams to beat New York this season, but they join the Aces as the only two teams to beat the Liberty twice. Washington is the only team to have a positive point differential over New York this season, as they have outscored them by eight total points (2.0 per game).

Sykes and Natasha Cloud tied for the team lead in scoring against the Liberty this season at 17.8 points per game apiece over all four games. Atkins was next at 16.3 ppg over three games, while Delle Donne added 13 ppg over three games. Atkins and Delle Donne both played in both of Washington’s wins and should be in the lineup in the first round.

6. Minnesota Lynx (3 points)

The 2022 season marked an end to Minnesota’s incredible run of playoff and championship success, as their 11-year playoff streak came to an end and the final player from that dynasty core retired as Sylvia Fowles ended her brilliant career. But after a one-year hiatus, the Lynx are back in the postseason after bouncing back from a 0-6 start to the season to finish as the No. 6 seed at 19-21.

They face a tough matchup with Connecticut in the first round, as the Sun won the season series 3-1. In Minnesota’s win on July 30, the Lynx got 19 points from Kayla McBride and big performances off the bench from Jessica Shepard (12 points, 14 rebounds) and Aerial Powers (14 points on 6-of-8 shooting) as they earned the victory without Napheesa Collier.

Collier appeared in only two of the four games with the Sun this season, averaging a team-high 25.5 points per game on 50% FG, 36% 3P, and 100% FT shooting splits. McBride added 12.5 points per game across all four games, while Shepard nearly averaged a double-double (9.7 ppg, 10 rpg) in three games with Connecticut.

If the Lynx hope to pull off the upset, they will need a marked improvement on defense. Minnesota enters the postseason with the worst defensive rating of the eight playoff teams (105.7, 10^th overall). And it was even worse in their four games against Connecticut (107.6).

7. Atlanta Dream (2 points)

Atlanta is back in the postseason for the first time since 2018 and has a first-round matchup with Dallas, a team that swept their regular season series and handed the Dream a 17-point loss in the regular season finale on Sunday in Atlanta.

The Dream enter the postseason with the lowest effective field goal percentage of any team in the playoff field at 47.5%. And that mark was far worse against their first-round opponent as the Dream posted a 39.9% effective field goal percentage in three games against the Wings.

The Dream shot just 35.5% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range against the Wings as two of their top three scorers struggled to make shots against Dallas. Rhyne Howard led the Dream in scoring against Dallas at 18 points per game, but shot just 33% from the field, while Allisha Gray posted her lowest scoring average (10.7 ppg) and shooting percentage (28.6%) against any opponent this season in her three games against her former team of the previous six seasons.

This Atlanta-Dallas matchup features the first- and third-ranked teams in terms of pace from the regular season. If this series does play out like a track meet, the Dream will have to score often and more efficiently if they hope to advance against a Wings team that led the WNBA in scoring over the final quarter of the regular season.

8. Chicago Sky (1 point)

Despite an abrupt coaching and general manager change near the mid-point of the season, the Sky are back in the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Chicago entered the final week of the regular season on the outside looking in on the playoff field but closed the season by winning six of their last eight games to pass Los Angeles and secure the eighth and final playoff spot.

One of those two Chicago losses down the stretch came against Las Vegas, the Sky’s first-round opponent in the No.1 vs. No. 8 matchup. In that Aug. 24 meeting, the Sky led by as many as 16 points before the Aces rallied for a seven-point win – the closest of the three games they played this season.

In the season series, the Aces had three 20+ points per game scorers while the Sky had just one in Kahleah Copper, who averaged 22.7 points on 55% FG, 43% 3P, and 88% FT shooting splits against the Aces. Marina Mabrey added 17.7 points on remarkably efficient shooting (50% FG, 60% 3P, 80% FT). Elizabeth Williams closed out the double-digit scorers for the Sky at 12.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg against the Aces.

Only Minnesota allowed more points to Las Vegas than Chicago did during the regular season. Can the Sky find a way to slow down the Aces’ offense? Or can the Sky keep pace with the league’s top-ranked offense and try to outscore the defending champs?