WNBA Player Props Today: Alyssa Thomas, A’ja Wilson Among Best Picks (9/13/2023)
The playoffs are here!
We ended the final month of the season going 18-6 on player props. Now we look to the postseason, and from me, expect player props just about every time we have playoff games on the slate.
I’ll do my best to hold up that end, so this week, that’s Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.
Let’s keep the momentum going for what could be the most enjoyable WNBA playoffs we’ve had in years, if not ever.
WNBA Player Props & Picks
Alyssa Thomas Over 33.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115) | Over 7.5 Assists (-120)
| Spread | Sun -9.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN 2 |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Alyssa Thomas should really get some MVP ballot love, and we’d expect her to show why against the Minnesota Lynx.
For Game 1 on Wednesday, I’m playing Thomas to go over her points, rebounds and assists, which you can get on bet365. I’ll have some alternatives at the end of this blurb if you’re not in a bet365 state.
Thomas only hit this in one of her last five regular season games, but the Sun have been firmly the second seed for a while and have been too far to move up or down in the standings, so I’m not reading a ton into that.
Plus, before that last stretch, Thomas went over 33.5 pts-rebs-asts in four consecutive games, which capped off a stretch of doing it in nine of 11 contests.
Also, these are the playoffs.
Thomas has been on a postseason roster every year since 2017. For her career, she’s averaging about 15 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 33 playoff games — improved from her regular season averages — and hit over 33.5 pts-rebs-asts twice in the Sun’s four-game WNBA Finals series against the Las Vegas Aces last year.
If you’re not able to play this combo, look at Thomas’ rebounds and assists. The points are really what took a hit down the stretch of the regular season, but her rebound prop is listed at 9.5 and 10.5, depending on where you look.
I love playing over 9.5, which she’s gotten 14 out of 19 times before the playoffs. Regarding the 10.5, I’d probably stay away because of those 14 overs, six of them were with exactly 10 boards.
Her assists alone are as good as the 9.5 boards. She’s over or under 7.5 dimes and has hit eight or more in 12 of 18 coming into Wednesday.
Of her individual props, it’s probably my favorite.
Additionally, Thomas is +380 to get a triple-double on FanDuel. She recorded six triple-doubles this season and two in her playoff career, which were her last two appearances in the 2022 finals. Don’t put much on it, but I think it’s sprinkle-worthy at about 4-to-1 odds.
A’ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
| Spread | Aces -16.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
We’re all expecting a tremendous effort from the Las Vegas Aces, who remain the favorites to win the WNBA Finals, largely due to what looks to be a favorable path to the championship.
A’ja Wilson, if you can find her at 10 or less rebounds, is an over worth playing.
Against the Chicago Sky, Wilson has a favorable matchup in every meaningful category. I just think at 23.5 points you run the risk of the Aces blowing out the Sky before Wilson gets there.
The rebounds could be had quickly, and it’s also a prop she’s gone over twice in three tries against Chicago, whereas she’s gotten 24 or more points just once.
That doesn’t matter a ton, as she should honestly hit both. But we’ll stick with 9.5 rebounds, which I don’t love up to 10.5 for Game 1.
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