The longest regular season in WNBA history is over. And with more games came more incredible on-court action, more dizzying Chelsea Gray assists, more A’ja and Stewie swats, more record-setting performances, more MVP debates, and more last-second jockeying for seeding purposes on Sunday.

But now? It’s all on the line. Now is when it really counts.

Playoff time is where legends are truly made; where lifetime memories are formed. We’re roughly a year removed from one of the greatest playoff games ever – Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces.

We’re in the most exciting time of the year, now. Playoff time is where legends are truly made; where lifetime memories are formed. We’re roughly a year removed from one of the greatest playoff games ever – Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces.

If this year’s round-one matchups are any indication, we should be in for another amazing postseason. For this piece, we’re going to look at one key battleground in each first-round series. 

(1) LAS VEGAS ACES V (8) CHICAGO SKY

The Battle: The Aces’ decision-making vs. the Sky’s shifting defense

Oh, hey: we finally got the Aces-Sky playoff matchup!

(Too soon?)

There isn’t much you can do to stop the Aces offense. They led the WNBA in offensive rating (113.0) this season, slipping past the 2019 Washington Mystics (112.9) for the best mark in league history this year. 

To put it another way: the Aces scored at a top-three-in-the-league rate against every team in the WNBA except the New York Liberty (103.1 offensive rating in four regular season matchups) – and even that clip would’ve ranked 5th in the league.

The Sky wasn’t able to notch a win against the Aces this season, but there were enough stretches during the regular season meetings to garner some intrigue. Under interim head coach Emre Vatansever, the Sky did a little bit of everything – they played a (high) drop defense, mixed in switches, and flat-out blitzed on occasion. It’s also worth noting that no team logged more zone possessions than the Sky this season, per Synergy.

When the Aces are flowing and playing advantage basketball, there’s only one other team in the league that comes close to their ceiling. Make the Aces catch-and-hold against switches or zone, or retreat and burn clock against traps, and you may be able to force them into enough late-clock possessions to make things interesting.

(4) DALLAS WINGS v (5) ATLANTA DREAM

The Battle: The Wings’ post-offense vs. the Dream’s help defense

Honestly, the question of the series may be “Which team will stress their own head coach the least?”

On a serious note, these are a pair of teams that want to play fast and generate a bunch of buckets in transition. The Dream, who finished the season with a better defense (101.5 DRTG) than the Wings (103.5 DRTG), could have a tougher time forcing the kind of stops needed to juice their early offense.

The Wings have a ton of size up front: Teaira McCowan, Natasha Howard, Satou Sabally, and Kalani Brown off the bench are all comfortable posting up smaller players. The Dream are a versatile group, but they aren’t a very big one. 

Naturally, more help may be needed to deal with the Wings’ ability to shift to a post-heavy offense. However, the Wings do a good job of spacing around their post-ups to make it difficult to send help. They’re a frequent ball-screen-into-post-up group, on top of being high-low merchants. And on top of that, they’re intentional about lifting their spacers from the corners to create more room for their post options.

All three of those post opportunities for the Wings were one-on-one affairs; I’m not sure if the Dream wanted them to be, and that’s the problem.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Dream decide to be more aggressive with their help anyway, and essentially dare the Wings’ bigs to make kick-out passes. More pointedly, it’d be an interesting bet against a Wings team that ranked last in three-point percentage (31.7) – and shot slightly below that (30.8) in the regular season meetings.

(2) NEW YORK LIBERTY v (7) WASHINGTON MYSTICS

The Battle: The Liberty’s ball movement vs. the Mystics’ ground coverage

It’ll be overshadowed a bit by the Aces’ offensive dominance, but the Liberty also had a historic offense. Statistically, no team has ever blended shooting and ball movement like they did. They set WNBA records for three-point makes (11.1) and attempts (29.7) while leading the league in three-point percentage (37.4). If that wasn’t enough, they assisted on 75% of their made baskets – another WNBA record, narrowly edging out last season’s Chicago Sky (74.3%). 

The numbers themselves are daunting; factor in how much roster turnover they had in the offseason, and it’s incredible that they were able to establish a historic blend of playmaking and shooting. You can somewhat excuse their middling turnover rate (17.5% of possessions, 6th) with that context.

If there’s one team they haven’t been able to find it against, however, it’s the Washington Mystics. 

The Liberty posted an offensive rating of 100.0 – the equivalent of the 7th-ranked offense in the league, and well below their second-ranked regular-season mark (109.6) – in their four games against the Mystics. Their assist rate dropped from 75 to 67.8; their turnover rate shot up from 17.5 to 20.5.

It’s easy to point to the on-ball prowess of Natasha Cloud, Ariel Atkins, and newcomer Brittney Sykes to explain the discomfort the Liberty have felt. When going back through the tape, it’s hard not to be impressed by how well this team swarms behind the action. On a given possession, you can get on-ball pressure, intentional shading against post mismatches to make entry passes tough, and lightning-fast rotations on the back end. 

There were quite a few unforced errors from the Liberty during the regular season meetings, but that felt like a cumulative effect of the pressure the Mystics put on them. Cleaning those up, and just having time to devise a playoff game plan, should lead to better results for New York.

But if the Mystics can bring and keep the Liberty in the mud offensively, we’re going to be in for a fun three-game series.

(3) CONNECTICUT SUN v (6) MINNESOTA LYNX

The Battle: Alyssa Thomas vs. the Lynx’s inverted attack

When you think of screening actions in basketball – either off-ball screens or traditional pick-and-rolls – you generally envision a big setting a screen for a smaller player to help pry them open. There are plenty of elements of that in the Lynx’s offense. Just to the pick-and-roll point: of the 47 players to average at least 3.0 pick-and-roll possessions per game (passes included) this season, the Lynx have four players in the top 16 in terms of points-per-possession efficiency. 

What makes Minnesota so difficult to deal with is their ability to reverse that line of thinking. They’ll often have their guards screen for their bigger players to put defenses in tough positions. No player gets more of that inverted usage than All-Star forward Napheesa Collier. 

Among that same 47-player group, Collier ranks 3rd in the WNBA in PnR efficiency (1.058 PPP), trailing only Aces star Chelsea Gray (1.084 PPP) and Sparks guard Lexie Brown (1.232 PPP). Kayla McBride is Collier’s most frequent screening partner in this setup, with her penchant for physicality and ability to shoot off movement forcing defenses into uncomfortable decisions.

Collier only appeared in two of the four matchups the Lynx had against the Sun this season, but she scored an efficient 51 points (25.5 PPG) in those outings. Collier was often defended by All-World defender Alyssa Thomas, but the Lynx made her work. 

How the Sun go about defending these actions – and how successful they are – could be the difference between home cooking and this series being on #UpsetAlert. 

WNBA reporter Nekias Duncan writes columns on WNBA.com throughout the season and can be reached on Twitter at @NekiasNBA. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.