The First Round of the WNBA Playoffs 2023 presented by Google is officially in the books! Despite valiant efforts from the Minnesota Lynx and Washington Mystics specifically, pushing the Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty respectively, we got chalk in round one. All four top seeds advanced, setting up some pretty fun semifinal matchups.

For this piece, we’re going to look at key battlegrounds for the upcoming best-of-fives. 

(1) LAS VEGAS ACES vs. (4) DALLAS WINGS

The Battle: The Wings’ bigs vs. A’ja Wilson

This feels like a “duh” battle, considering Wilson is arguably the best player in the league and, thus, the most important player for the Wings to slow down. But I’m more intrigued by how the Wings choose to match up.

Wilson will start alongside Kiah Stokes, a solid screener and connector, but someone who isn’t a major scoring threat. That should unlock the “roaming” ability for whoever gets the Stokes matchup, allowing them to further crowd the paint against Wilson. 

Wilson averaged 22.5 points during the regular season series but only converted 45% of her 2s – well below her career-high regular season efficiency (57%).

There’s an argument for having Teaira McCowan or Natasha Howard as the primary assignment against Wilson. McCowan has the strength to deal with Wilson’s drives and post-ups, and length to make her mid-range jumpers tougher to convert. On the flip side, you’d have to worry about the Aces moving Wilson around – they’ve experimented with flying Wilson off guard-like staggered screens – or involving McCowan in pick-and-rolls.

With Howard, you have the mobility question answered, while Howard is pretty strong in her own right. That would allow McCowan to “guard” Stokes, keeping her out of primary actions and closer to the basket for defensive rebound opportunities. The Wings thrive when they’re able to get out in transition – they quietly won the fast-break battle during the regular season series – but you can’t do that without ending possessions at a high level.

The Wings will have their hands full trying to slow down Wilson in a playoff setting, but Wilson and company also have their work cut out on the glass. The Wings rebounded nearly 37% of their own misses this season, easily leading the WNBA. That mark dropped to 32.8 during the regular season series, but that 1) was the highest number the Aces allowed against an opponent and 2) would still rank first in the league if extrapolated across an entire season.

McCowan was the biggest threat, grabbing 20 offensive rebounds across four games against the Aces. That is, my friends, absolutely ridiculous.

It’s hard to emphasize how much of a luxury it is to get that many extra bites at the apple offensively. It’s especially valuable considering how good the Aces’ transition offense is.

STRAY THOUGHTS

• Jackie Young’s defense, specifically her screen navigation and off-ball work, will be really important in this series. She’ll either have her hands full staying attached to Arike Ogunbowale, or keeping track of the many ways the Wings deploy Satou Sabally.
• We may see a lot of zone in this series. Per Synergy, the Wings (187) and Aces (121) faced the most zone possessions in the league this year. And remember, the Aces went almost exclusively zone in the first quarter of their most recent matchup.
• The bench battle should be a fun one, too. Sixth Player of the Year Alysha Clark shot a blistering 9-of-13 from 3 (69.2%) against the Wings this season. The Aces small-ball unit, with her in place of Stokes, outscored the Wings by 38 points in 24 minutes. On the other side, keep an eye on the impact of Kalani Brown’s size, the ball pressure and playmaking from Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims, and the versatility of Awak Kuier.

(2) NEW YORK LIBERTY vs. (3) CONNECTICUT SUN

The Battle: Alyssa Thomas vs. New York’s length

Thomas is one of the most unique talents we have in the league. And while she isn’t a traditional get-you-20 scorer, she poses matchup issues because of her combination of playmaking chops, finishing craft, and pure strength. 

Because she operates from the perimeter so much, stashing a center on her isn’t always a safe bet. Thomas is constantly screening or working side-to-side to flow into dribble handoffs to keep the offense moving. Not only does that naturally pull opposing centers into the action and increase their workload, but it also pulls them away from the paint – opening up juicy windows for cutters.

Putting 4s on her might make more sense in theory; they’re typically smaller and more mobile, thus being better prepared to deal with some of Thomas’ perimeter play. The issue is that Thomas is flat-out stronger than virtually every other 4 in the WNBA, which opens up some of her bully-ball drives, post-ups, and rim-rolls in ball screen actions. 

In round one, the Lynx gave rookie Dorka Juhász the primary Thomas assignment, with Napheesa Collier and key reserve Bridget Carlton also getting a crack at her. Thomas averaged [checks notes] 23.0 points (57.7% on 2s) and 9.3 assists (3.0) across three games.

The Liberty pose a different challenge based on its personnel.

Jonquel Jones, Thomas’ former teammate, is bigger and longer than Thomas, just as strong, and has been mobile enough post-All-Star break to muck things up. Thomas averaged just 11.5 points against the Liberty this season, while converting a ghastly 33.3% of her shots inside the arc.

Of course, it isn’t just Jones. Breanna Stewart may not have the same strength or general size, but her mobility and absurd 7’1 wingspan helps her bother Thomas. Betnijah Laney, one of the best on-ball defenders in the sport, has also had turns against Thomas this year. And the real kicker: stashing one of those players on Thomas means the other two can roam around behind the action to play the passing lanes or provide secondary rim protection.

Frankly, the Sun cannot win this series if they can’t find a way to unlock Thomas more as a scorer. She may not have to score at the clip she did against the Lynx in round one, but it certainly must be better than her regular-season showing.

STRAY THOUGHTS

• I’d keep an eye on how Sabrina Ionescu deals with Connecticut’s length, too. She drained 31.6% of her 6.2 three-point attempts against the Sun this season. That was her lowest shooting clip against an opponent this season, and a bottom-three mark in terms of volume and total percentage of her shots coming from deep. She wasn’t able to get free with ball screens to the same degree during the regular season series, which took some of the “easier” pull-ups off the table.
• On a related note: Courtney Vandersloot for New York, and Connecticut’s backcourt of Tiffany Hayes and Natisha Hiedeman will likely see their defenders duck under screens in an effort to dare them to shoot. Their effectiveness against that particular coverage could swing things in this series.
• DiJonai Carrington will be a major X-factor for the Sun. Her defense, rim pressure, and improved shooting have been valuable for this team all year long. Hopefully, her foot doesn’t affect her too much in this series.

WNBA reporter Nekias Duncan writes columns on WNBA.com throughout the season and can be reached on Twitter at @NekiasNBA. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.