On Tuesday night, the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty are set to face off for the third time this season. The star-studded battles have been highly anticipated and fun; however, what they haven’t been are close.

The Aces took round one back on June 29, blasting the Liberty 98-81 behind a dominant second half – namely the third quarter. The Aces won the period 27-14, extending a seven-point halftime lead to 20. An early Aces run in the fourth quarter pushed the lead to 27, effectively ending the game before the deficit lowered in garbage time.

The Liberty returned the favor during their meeting on August 6, beating the Aces 99-61 and handing them one of their worst losses in franchise history in the process. To say the Liberty dominated the second half would be a massive understatement; a 50-17 edge – 30-9 in the third quarter – is patently absurd. The Aces couldn’t even get the garbage time bump, only mustering eight points in the final frame.

Here’s hoping the Commissioner’s Cup Championship gives us the nail-biter we’ve been waiting for!

There are plenty of storylines to focus on in this one. A battle of MVPs, dynamic guards, and multifaceted wings that can take games over. The “dreaded” Super Team narrative that both teams have spent all season trying to shut down. 

If there’s one thing I’m curious about heading into the championship game, it’s who can turn the tide on defense.

We know these teams can score. The Aces lead the WNBA in offensive rating (114.7 points per 100 possessions) and outpace the 2019 Washington Mystics (112.9) for the best offense in league history. The Liberty isn’t at that level, but they rank second in offensive rating (108.5) and have raised their level since the All-Star break (110.4). 

Quiet as kept, both teams have been pretty good defensively, too. The Aces currently have the league’s best defensive rating (97.4 points allowed per 100 possessions), while the Liberty rank third (99.4). In each of their wins in this series, we’ve seen their defense kickstart their (transition) offense and flip games in their favor.

The Aces did a little bit of everything during the June match-up. They showcased at-the-level aggression – meaning their bigs stepped up near the screen-setter when defending a pick-and-roll. When playing the bigs further back against ball screens, they’d also have their perimeter defenders duck under picks to protect against paint touches. If all else failed, they’d simply switch the action to keep a body in front at all times, thus preventing the Liberty from generating advantages. 

It’s worth keeping an eye on the switching. The legendary Candace Parker was a big part of their defensive success in the first meeting. With her out for the foreseeable future, the Aces have had to lean more into their single-big lineups. They did so in the August meeting, though the Liberty found success posting up mismatches, generating over 1.2 points per post-up possession, per Synergy.

On the other side, the foundation of the Liberty’s defense is switching. They’re sometimes comfortable ramping up the aggression, playing Jonquel Jones or Breanna Stewart closer to the level of ball screens, but they’re at their best when flattening out actions with timely switches.

That was felt in the early August match-up, with the Liberty successfully bogging the Aces down with their switches. An Aces team that thrives on getting defenses off-balance and punishing them with drives & dishes suddenly found themselves scrambling in half-court settings.

A level of snappiness and cohesion is needed to pull this off against an offensive team as talented as the Aces. It’s not enough to keep the action in front; there’s an extra layer of execution needed to pull off the scram-switching — meaning on-the-fly off-ball switches to eliminate mismatches — that’s helped them protect their smaller guards.

As much as we’ll enjoy the potential bucket-getting of Stewart, A’ja Wilson, Sabrina Ionescu, Kelsey Plum, and others, this game will likely be decided by who can buckle down and execute their half-court defense.

WNBA reporter Nekias Duncan writes columns on WNBA.com throughout the season and can be reached on Twitter at @NekiasNBA. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.