The WNBA Finals 2023 are nearly here, and we have a doozy! As many predicted ahead of the season, the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty will face off in a battle of two superteams very talented teams. 

You likely know the tale of the tape by now. The Aces and Liberty had the league’s best records. They ranked first and second, respectively, in offensive rating and net rating. The star power speaks for itself, and between Sixth Player of the Year Alysha Clark and the Liberty’s dynamic bench duo of Kayla Thornton and Marine Johannès, we could see key performances from reserves in this one, too. 

I want to present a hot take: the play of each team’s best player could drastically shift this series.

That sounds incredibly “duh” on the surface. Still, it’s worth noting that neither A’ja Wilson nor Breanna Stewart – the league’s best players and winners of four of the last six MVP awards – looked particularly super during the regular season and Commissioner’s Cup meetings.

In four regular season matchups, Wilson averaged 17.3 points while converting 48.1% of her total shots, well below her regular season averages of 22.8 points on 55.7% shooting. Stewart saw a similar drop-off as a scorer in this matchup, averaging just 18.0 points (down from 23.0 points overall) on 35.6% shooting from the floor (46.5% overall). 

The Liberty convincingly won the Commissioner’s Cup (82-63), but Stewart  (13 points on 4-of-16 shooting) didn’t set the nets on fire, either. Wilson failed to crack double digits (9 points on 2-of-10 shooting) in that one.

To be clear, neither player has been bad; they were impactful defensively and created openings for their teammates with the attention they commanded. But it’s fair to say we didn’t get the MVP version of either player. Let’s dig into the “why” and explore counters we may see in the Finals. 

PLAYING IN A CROWD

Your defense needs a blend of size, mobility, length, and activity to truly disrupt Wilson. Through two postseason rounds, Wilson has been nearly unstoppable (25.8 points on 59.5% shooting) because her opponents lacked one or more of those items.

The Liberty, with their fearsome trio of Jonquel Jones, Stewart, and Betnijah Laney, have all those things. More than any team this season, the Liberty were able to truly sell out against Wilson without being consistently burned by others.

During the season, the Liberty toggled between Jones and Stewart as Wilson’s primary defender, with the other serving as a helper behind the action. Laney, who mostly defended Chelsea Gray, provided an extra layer of help from the nail (free throw line area) to disrupt Wilson’s drives.

The Aces have shown a willingness to run Wilson off of screens throughout the season and throughout this matchup. Don’t be surprised if that trend continues, especially when Jones defends Wilson. However, It may be more imperative for the Aces to manipulate their spacing to limit some of the nail help they’ve seen from Laney. 

Kelsey Plum looms large here. She doubles as the Aces’ most prolific guard screener and the smallest player in their rotation. That makes her ripe for mismatch-hunting, especially if the Liberty continue to lean on their switching. 

From a spacing perspective, having Plum one pass away from Wilson instead of Gray could lead to less aggressive help, smaller help – remember, Laney has gotten the Gray assignment, so that would likely mean Courtney Vandersloot or Sabrina Ionescu in that position – or both. 

DEFENDING FOR THREE-QUARTERS (¾)

Stewart’s offensive value lies in her versatility. You can run her off screens, post her up, clear a side for an isolation, use her in ball screens – as the ball-handler or screener – and do so at volume. She’s a moving target, unlike almost anything we’ve seen in the WNBA. And if all else fails, you can give her the ball and trust that she can use her 7’1 wingspan to shoot over the top of her defender.

There isn’t great coverage for Stewart, but there are a couple of things the Aces do to disrupt her rhythm. One, they switch many of her actions – a template we saw the Washington Mystics most recently used in the first round. But what the Aces do after they switch and give up size mismatches is even more important. 

They task their players with playing the high side of Stewart – not quite a full front, but enough to make Stewart shift her positioning. It removes easy catch-pivot-attack sequences while also making entry passes tougher.

If the pass is made, a second defender rotates from the weak side to meet Stewart on the catch. At best, it’s a way to force Stewart into turnovers. The moderate outcome is to force Stewart to burn the clock or pass the ball. When going back through the film, the quiet benefit is the number of uncharacteristic misses Stewart accumulated by rushing, likely because she wanted to shoot before the help arrived. 

The Liberty may pull a page from Wings or Sun playbook and establish their high-low post-play. Instead of immediately making the entry pass to Stewart and having her deal with a second defender on the catch, a second Liberty player could flash to the middle of the floor to receive and engage that defender before making the pass to Stewart. 

It doesn’t happen on this possession – Stewart eventually scores on a smooth step-back jumper – but pay attention to Jones. After Stewart establishes positioning against Plum, Jones flashes to the free throw line to set up a high-low, but Stewart pops out early. The seeds are there, though.

We’ll likely see a more obvious counter: Stewart slipping screens as the Aces attempt to switch. Like Plum, Ionescu has tremendous value as a screener because of her ability to shoot and the general size difference between her defender and Stewart’s. There will be pockets for Stewart to slip into when they’re used together. 

I’ll close with another hot take: this will be a very fun series.

WNBA reporter Nekias Duncan writes columns on WNBA.com throughout the season and can be reached on Twitter at @NekiasNBA. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.